Weather and Crime
2011
Is there a connection between weather and crime? There may
be according to the information collected so far. There might
also be a connection between a person's position in a corporation
and that person's likelihood of committing a crime of petty theft.
Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner, in their book Freakonomics,
report on bagel seller Paul Feldman, who delivered bagels to
140 companies in the Washington D.C area. His business consists
of leaving a basket of bagels at each company, along with a sealed
wooden box for customers to deposit their payment into (a dollar
per bagel). Of course not everyone pays for their bagels. Feldman's
average payment rate is slightly below 90%, meaning that over
10% of bagels are essentially stolen.
The rate of payment varies,of course, according to the office
and even other temporary conditions. This is where the statistics
get interesting. Feldman, who was formerly an economist, kept
track of the data for many years.
The data show that there is less theft in smaller offices.
This may be because of the fact that more people are likely to
see who pays and who doesn't in a busy office. It may also be
that the "moral culture" of small groups is more pronounced
than that of large groups. Perhaps people feel more anonymous
in larger groups, and so less restrained by ethical codes.
More interesting is the effect that weather has. Nice weather
results in less theft. Feldman found that very cold weather,
as well as heavy rain and wind, results in much more theft. Holidays
also seem to prompt more theft. The week of Christmas theft of
his bagels rises by 15%. The weeks of Thanksgiving and Valentine's
Day also see a rise in theft. On the other hand, weeks with holidays
that are essentially just a day off (Labor Day, Columbus Day),
don't see a rise in theft.
One theory is that the stress and anxiety surrounding the
other holiday's is what contributes to the theft. Thus holidays
that are essentially just a day off to most people do not produce
the stress which may lead to a breakdown of conscience.
Feldman further suggests that if employees like their jobs
and their bosses they don't steal as much. This would be a difficult
thing to measure. He did find a basis for determining that people
higher in the corporate structure steal more. For years he delivered
to three floors in one building, and the company had executives
on the top floor, with sales and administrative employees on
the lower floors. The top floor had more theft. Feldman speculated
that perhaps executives had a greater sense of entitlement than
others.
Levitt and Dubner add to that the idea that perhaps people
became executives by cheating. I wonder if perhaps the top floors
are not as buss with foot traffic, making it easier to steal
a bagel. Weather and crime, crowds and crime, corporate position
and the likelihood of committing petty theft - it all makes for
some interesting speculations...
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